The Escalation Ladder

 As the USA and Israel escalate their war on Iran, Iran escalates in return. The Iranians have stated that their attacks will be an eye for an eye. I will attempt to predict the tiers of the escalation ladder.

Tier 1: Intensifying targeting of US bases. 

Tier 2: Targeting of Gulf oil Infrastructure.

Tier 3: Targeting of Gulf kings and leadership. 

Tier 4: Targeting the Dimona nuclear reactor in Israel. 

Tier one involved sustained missile and drone attacks targeting several key bases in which the US military is utilizing for the bombing campaign on Iran. Well placed missiles and drones could destroy many of the aircraft and take out many of the troops stationed at each base. The Iranians have been doing this and will continue. On March 13, for example, 5 refueling aircraft were damaged on the ground by an Iranian munition. 

Tier two results from the destruction or US occupation of Iran's Kharg island where most oil is processed. If Iran's oil infrastructure is destroyed or captured, there will be no limiting factor for Iran to destroy the oil refineries, depots and oil rigs of the Gulf. This would send the world into an economic disaster. The Red sea would likely also be closed by the Houthis in Yemen. 

Tier two would result from the continued assassination of Iranian leaders and officers. Iran might feel it is justified to target heads of state throughout the Gulf nations. 

Tier four results from the destruction of Iran's uranium stockpile or the use of a nuclear weapon on Iranian soil. The Dimona reactor in the Negev of "Israel" would undoubtedly be hit at this time. This could result in a Chernobyl-level nuclear meltdown of the facility. 

The USA is making increasingly confused statements. It seems likely that they will attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, or possibly occupy Kharg island. 5,000 Marines are reportedly heading to the middle east, apparently for this task. This is obviously not enough soldiers for anyone familiar with military tactics to do much of anything. A mere 5,000 soldiers might be able to occupy Kharg island, but would be forced out by short and medium range ballistic missiles as well as drones. Kharg island would become an inferno. Taking any coastal land along the Strait of Hormuz would go even less smoothly. Conventional artillery and ATGMs would harass any invaders along with the previously mentioned heavy munitions. 

The ultimate escalation that is realistic at this time would be a full US invasion of Iran. Given the large size of the country and its mountain covered terrain, there is no foreseeable way this would not result in huge US casualties. Tehran is far from the coast and IRGC bases are located throughout the country. Iran would have to be captured mile by mile. If this comes to fruition, Iran may inflict the first ever military defeat on the USA in its invasion phase of a war.