How Iran Can Win the War

Iran must keep fighting as this is an existential fight for survival. 

Israel is the most irrational of the three actors involved in this conflict. The Israelis have already referred to the Iranians as "Amalek" as they did before to the people of Gaza. We know where this leads. Already the USA and Israel are engaged in a terror bombing campaign on civilian targets in Tehran in particular. This campaign of terror will continue and intensify as Iran continues to fight. 

Iran is now in a comfortable position, which was unthinkable on February 28th. Iran has many more cards to play as the Israeli-American axis has vastly underestimated their capabilities and resolve. Yesterday, a KC-135 was shot down over Iraq. Today, there are reports from the Wall Street Journal that five more KC-135 aircraft were damaged on the ground in Saudi Arabia. This is one of the only ways the war might reasonably end at this time. If Iran can take out the KC-135 fleet, the F-15s and F-35s will be limited in their strike range inside Iran. Iran seems to have recognized this. The KC-135s could continue to be targeted on the ground by drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. This will become easier as the war goes on, as interceptors run out. 

If the US-Israeli axis truly runs out of  interceptors, this might also force a true negotiation for peace. Israel and US assets could be struck at will with almost no way to prevent it. In my opinion, if Israel truly runs out of interceptors, they may consider using nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons on Iranian cities likely wouldn't even stop the missile barrages, however. The IRGC stationed in the countryside and mountains would continue to fire what they had until they ran out. Israel would also forever be a pariah for the use of nuclear weapons. Being the the Israelis are not a rational group of people, it is quite possible they would nevertheless use nuclear weapons. Iran would then have no restraint left. The IRGC would target oil infrastructure throughout the Gulf, desalination plants in the Gulf and in Israel and even the Dimona nuclear reactor. 

Iran may have to force the USA and Israel to give up. Their current strategy seems to be working toward this goal. Small missile barrages and targeting the KC-135s is the winning strategy. Today (March 13) Iran used the Karrar drone and Soumar cruise missile for the first time. It is clear they are not running out of ordinance any time soon. Iran must cause enough pain to the coalition for them to consider quitting the war, but not cause so much as to force Israel into a suicidal position. The targeting of KC-135s is the best method to tow this line.