This is an ongoing article on the situation between Iran and the West. Forgive me for "dooming" at times as they say. At the conclusion of this war a new assessment will be written up. These were my initial thoughts as events unfolded.
On the night of June 12, 2025 Israel finally attacked Iran. They struck nuclear sites, air bases
and missile bases along with air defenses and radars. As I type this, the Israelis are
continuing air strikes and claim it will continue for days or even weeks. I was naive to think
that Iran could repel such an attack.
I believe that the Iranian government is in jeopardy, especially if Israel decides to
assassinate the heads of the Iranian state. Military commanders and nuclear scientists have
already been assassinated. This is the worst case scenario. The best case scenario is still
dismal for Iran. I believe that Iran’s capabilities will be set back by years. Especially their
ballistic missile program.
Iran’s ability to supply crucial weapons to its resistance allies fighting for freedom against
the apartheid regime of Israel may soon come to an end. The resistance groups need to
prepare for a post-Iran reality in which they must rely almost exclusively on self-made
weapons. Mortars, bullets and RPGs are not difficult to produce, but sophisticated weapons
like anti-tank guided missiles will soon be a thing of the past.
America tried to downplay its role in the Iranian strikes initially. However, Trump outed their
part in it as he is a blow hard who can’t keep his mouth shut. As I type this, Iran has not
launched ballistic missiles in retaliation, and may not be able to at this moment. I believe
their production capability for ballistic missiles will be destroyed if it has not already been
destroyed.
On June 13, 2025 Iran retaliated against Israel with a ballistic missile barrage. I had begun to
think Iran had been made incapable of this action, luckily I was disproven. Reportedly
hundreds were fired at Israel, and several hits are confirmed in Tel Aviv especially. Israel is
now striking Iran yet again as I type this.
My hope for this war is simply that Iran survives. Even if the nuclear facilities and ballistic
missile production facilities are destroyed, Iran is too important a supplier of small arms and
ammunition to resistance organizations to fall. Iran is the last obstacle to Israeli hegemony
in the middle east. If Iran falls, Israel as a state will survive for decades more.
While Israel will not be militarily defeated in this war, hopefully it helps isolate the small
reich even further from the rest of the world. Once the International Court of Justice find
Israel guilty of genocide, and this may take many years if not over a decade, Western nations
will have no choice but to distance themselves. Israel will wither away as a pariah under
sanctions and an arms embargo in a perfect world.
Throughout the 13th of June in 2025, Iran and Israel continued to trade blows. Several
successive waves of ballistic missiles made impact in Israel. I believe that if this continues at
pace, the world’s fate is tempted. Iran does not have any nuclear weapons, but Israel does.
How much damage will Israel take before they feel it is necessary to launch a nuclear attack
on Tehran? If the Israelis choose to do this it could spark other nations to retaliate. Pakistan
could theoretically become involved with its nuclear weapons. Then India might feel
compelled to strike Pakistan and so on.
Giving the Israelis total impunity for decades, but especially since October 7th 2023, has
proven to be a disaster for the middle east. This could soon turn into a nuclear holocaust all
because the politicians in the USA couldn’t stand up to the apartheid regime. The senators
and congressmen would rather receive millions of dollars from the pro-Israel lobby than
protect the future of humanity on earth.
The United States and Britain are involved in the “defense” of Israel. Anti-ballistic missile
batteries and aircraft from both nations help Israel intercept some of Iran’s incoming
missiles and drones. The collaborator regime in Jordan allows the US, Britain and Israel to
use its airspace. I believe that the unpopular regime of king Abdullah in Jordan could be
easily toppled with a targeted strike on the dictator’s residence by Iran.
If the situation becomes more critical for Iran, further action to disrupt the Western
economy should be taken. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would be quite easy for Iran.
Sending a drone swarm to the oil refineries of Saudi Arabia and the other oil monarchies
would bring the western economy to its knees.
Iran must find a way to get troops into Israel. I have pondered this for many years. Neither
Israel nor Iran have the capability to land troops in the other nation by sea or air on a large
scale. The only options for Iran a quite limited. Troops could be landed in Sudan and
transported covertly to the Egyptian Israeli border. This is already a smuggling route for
weapons to Gaza. A more involved method is to tow submarines loaded with troops as close
to Southern Israel as possible. As submarines possessed by Iran are not nuclear powered,
towing them in close is required as they do not have the range to get to their destination on
their own.
Several hundred troops could be landed in Eilat, Israel using the submarine method. This
would be a suicide mission for all involved as there would be no way to recover the troops
and return them to Iran. Likewise, an Iranian border incursion from Egypt would be a suicide
mission. Many more troops could be deployed in this manner in theory. However, Israel may
use a similar method by deploying its troops to do the same via Azerbaijan. I do not believe
IDF troops have the will to die in a suicide mission, which would make the Azerbaijan
incursion hypothesis unlikely.
IRGC troops could fly to Egypt via a third party nation as civilian tourists, pick up their
weapons in Egypt and invade through the Israeli-Egyptian border. The IDF now claims that
most of Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed as of June 14th If this is true, Israel will
operate with impunity inside Iran indefinitely as they have done with Syria for years. Iran
may not fall, but if Israeli aircraft have free reign then ballistic missile stocks cannot be
rebuilt and most military factories will never produce significant amounts of weapons again.
A shock offensive to force a sort of deal with the Israelis is potentially a last option for Iran.
The easiest target from Egypt would be the IDF around the Gaza strip. If shock troops of the
IRGC could infiltrate into the Gaza envelope and destroy howitzers and tanks it may force
the Israelis to rethink their options.
Iran may be reduced to asymmetrical warfare when the IDF strikes on Iranian military
infrastructure are complete, if they are ever complete. If Iran can’t rebuild its air defenses
there is no hope of large scale weapons manufacturing. Iran will become a state completely
at the mercy of the Israeli air force, as Syria has been and will continue to be. If this scenario
comes true, the Israelis will likely not be satisfied with a disarmed Iran alone, but seek to
topple the government completely. They would do this with a combination of directed
strikes on leadership and collaborating proxy groups in my opinion.
As of June 14th 2025, Iran is performing better than I had anticipated, and perhaps I was quick to accept Israeli/American propaganda about Iran’s fate. On the 14th , Iran launched
more waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, with many of them striking their targets. It appears
that this third night of missiles has caused a huge amount of damage and casualties in Israel.
It is unclear how long Iran can maintain this level of firepower, but I would not be surprised if
they have the missile stocks to launch ballistic missiles for a period of weeks. I remember an
Iranian general once saying that they are producing ballistic missiles “like cigarettes.”
The morning of June 15th revealed massive destruction in Israel from Iran’s ballistic missiles.
It is clear that Israel has made a serious miscalculation. Israel is now begging the United
States to get involved in their war. I believe the USA will eventually be forced into war with
Iran. It is not clear if this would be limited to air strikes or a full on invasion of the country.
The Americans should know how hard an invasion of Iran would be. Compared to Iraq or
Afghanistan, Iran is much harder for a variety of reasons. The terrain is much like that of
Afghanistan with many mountain ranges. The weapons of Iran make Saddam’s arsenal look
like nothing. Where Saddam had few anti-tank guided missiles, Iran produces large
quantities of these domestically. If Saddam had obtained more ATGMs from Russia prior to
the USA’s invasion in 2003, many more American tanks would have been lost. It is possible
that the attack toward Baghdad would have even been repelled, at least temporarily.
Even if Iran were to collapse under an invasion, a guerilla force would take up arms from the
former army. This force would simply be undefeatable given the landscape and advanced
weapon stockpiles. American soldiers should renounce their posts before such an invasion
begins, refuse to fight in it or leave the USA. We should not fight for a genocidal supremacist
state that started this war with Iran.
On the 15th, Iran managed to strike Tel Aviv, Haifa and the Negev with ballistic missiles. There
is no sign of this letting up. Netanyahu has appeared in Western media lying about nuclear
weapons and stating that Iran wants to harm Americans. He is clearly desperate from inside
his luxury bunker. It is very likely that the USA will strike Iran, possibly even invade the
country. Barring that, Israel may go nuclear if they can’t achieve the upper hand. That is my
biggest fear.
Continuing on the night of the 15th, Iran struck the Haifa power plant, Tel Aviv and Nevatim
air base. I believe Israel and Iran are about to cross another point of no return. It is a matter
of time before one of three things happens to Iran. Israel nukes Tehran, Israel assassinates
the Iranian political head or the Americans intervene. Either scenario would likely bring an
end to the Iranian state.
Iran made a mistake of compartmentalizing its military. In the event of the leadership being
destroyed, civil war between the different military factions could erupt. The IRGC is the
most well known of these. In this event, America and Israel’s goal will be mostly complete.
However, I believe that the west would arm either Jihadist Sunni militants or Kurdish
separatists to finish the job on the ground. America is not above arming questionable
figures, as we have seen in Syria.
On this night, it was revealed that 21 stratotanker aircraft took off from the US mainland and
headed East. It is clear that the USA is moving military assets to prepare for an intervention.
I knew this would be the outcome, it was a foregone conclusion. Years of trying to be a
rational actor has backfired horribly on both Iran and Hezbollah.
June 16th 2025, Iran and Israel continue to trade blows. The United States continues to move its forces
toward the middle east. Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, continue to lie to the Western press in
order to drag the West into the conflict. Netanyahu stated that with “slight upgrades” the ballistic
missiles fired at Israel could reach the USA. In reality, the missiles would have to have added stages
and a much larger size as to be a completely different rocket design. An Israeli official in the UK
claimed the missiles used currently have the range to reach London. This is simply not true.
June 16, Israel strikes Iranian media stations while the reporters inside were live on air. A
blatant war crime. Netanyahu took to American television news to state that his goal is to
assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei. Killing the head of state in such a strike is also a war crime.
Everything Israel and its representatives say and do are war crimes. The American media is
completely beholden to the devil Netanyahu. They talk to him as if he is the ultimate
authority and arbiter of truth. They never question the ICJ’s genocide case or the ICC’s
arrest warrant for war crimes against him.
Netanyahu continues to lie about Iran’s intention to strike the US mainland with missiles.
This resonates with the neocons and neolibs who have the IQ score of warm spring day.
Netanyahu, a wanted international war criminal, is blatantly trying to drag the USA into the
war. It is not subtle to anyone who knows anything about military technology, capabilities
and geography of other nations. That is outside the scope of the American public. Americans
would point to Brazil on a map and worry about Iran’s proximity. When no one knows
geography, it is easy to say that medium range ballistic missiles from Iran could reach the
USA.
“Today, it’s Tel Aviv. Tomorrow it’s New York.” Netanyahu’s words to ABC news, which
apparently did not offer any push back on the wanted war criminal. This is meant to
resonate with the imbedded American islamophobia that has been drilling into us for
decades. Associating Iran with New York hints at 9/11. Most Americans do not understand
that Iran is a Shia country with a Shia government that is entirely at odd with the
fundamentalist Sunni ideology that struck the world trade centers.
Netanyahu’s clumsy propaganda should not be effective, but it is. This is indicative of an incredibly
stupid population and a complicit and controlled state media apparatus. “I
understand America first, I don’t understand America dead.” Another clumsy Netanyahuism
via ABC news. There is zero chance that Iran would ever strike mainland USA, even if they
were capable of doing so, which as it stands now Iran is not. This quote is telling as
Netanyahu is trying to use an American slogan that is problematic for Israel in his favor. He
is a master manipulator of the American media and political class.
Morning of June 17th, Iran struck the Mossad headquarters compound with four ballistic
missiles. The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier is now being deployed to the middle east, most
likely to take part in the upcoming war against Iran. Trump has stated within the last hours
that he isn’t keen on negotiating with Iran, and wants what can only be described as a
compete surrender anyway. There is no hope that a negotiated settlement will be reached, if
it was ever even a possibility. Israel would never listen to a deal anyway, as they have proven
time and again. Iran will face the United States in battle.
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