Syria Has Fallen

 The Syrian Arab Republic under Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. This follows a shock offensive by extremist rebels in the North of the country that eventually made their way to Damascus. Assad has fled the nation and a transitional government under his prime minister appears to be in place until it is handed over to the rebel factions. 

Syria's demise began in late November, 2024. A militant offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (al-Qaeda) fully captured Aleppo city along with its air port as well as Kweres air base. The fall of Aleppo was shocking, but in the author's estimation did not yet indicate and existential threat to the Syrian state.

In the following days, Hama city would be attacked. This would be the only area where the Syrian army put up any defense. However, HTS broke through and captured Hama city. It was at this point that it became apparent that Syria as we knew it was in extreme danger. 

In the following days, rebels from the South would take Daraa and the Druze in Suwayda would rebel. The Syrian army pulled out of the east of the country, including the hard fought city of Deir Ezzor. HTS in the North would take Homs as rebels from the Tanf pocket captured portions of the M5 highway at the same time, cutting Damascus from the coast. 

The Syrian army in Deir Ezzor and along the Euphrates river saw the writing on the wall and drove into Iraq with their armored vehicles. Meanwhile, as HTS approached Damascus, SAA soldiers stripped off their uniforms and abandoned their posts. Tanks were left in the Damascus streets. 

Not long after this on the night of December 8th, HTS entered Damascus without a fight. HTS took the TV station and announced the fall of Assad's government. Syrians seemed to cheer in the streets nation wide as statues were destroyed. However, an equal number of people likely remained in their homes in despair. This is something we cannot know of for sure. 

It was announced that Assad had left the country to an unknown location, most likely with his family and top officials. Such events highlight just how quickly a country can fall, when on the surface it seemed strong. At one time it appeared the war was over and Assad had won. It was an illusion. No government can last forever. Some governments are bad and some are worse, which type of government will take over Syria now?