Iran's Smuggling Route To Gaza

Iran has smuggled weapons into the Gaza Strip for years. It would do this by docking a cargo ship in Sudan and unloading weapons which would then be smuggled into Egypt. From there, tunnels or possibly other methods would smuggle the weapons to the Gaza Strip.

This is no longer a viable option. In 2020, Sudan normalized relations with Israel in the "deal of the century" brokered by the Trump administration. This puts Sudanese ports off limits to Iranian ships. Iran now must get creative if it wants to continue to supply the Gaza Strip. Iran operates 10-20 Ghadir class midget submarines. The Ghadir has a crew of seven and is just under 100 feet long. It has a speed of 8 knots when submerged.

These submarines could be towed into the Red Sea laden with weapons. They would be towed by an Iranian cargo ship, as the Ghadir does not have the range to make the journey on its own.

The Ghadir submarine would be released by the cargo ship once in the Red Sea. The Submarine would then travel to the coast of Sudan or even Egypt, where smugglers could unload it at sea using fishing boats. The Ghadir would then return to the cargo ship and be towed back to Iran.

An example of weapons that could be smuggled via Ghadir Submarine. These kornet/Dehlavieh ATGMs were seized on the way to Yemen.

Once smuggled to land, the weapons would make their way into Egypt and then be smuggled into the Gaza Strip. Smuggling into Gaza has become harder because of Egypt's cooperation with Israel. There is now a 5 kilometer buffer zone on the border with the Gaza Strip in Egypt. Egypt also floods the area with seawater via canals. A way around this is longer, deeper tunnels up to 6 kilometers long and 100 meters deep to avoid the buffer zone and flooding. 

 

The canal on the border with the Gaza Strip which is periodically flooded.

Deeper tunnels could be constructed to avoid flooding.

Iran will have to find a new way to get weapons onto the African continent as Sudan is no longer an option. Ghadir submarines are an excellent way around this. They can travel near the coastal seafloor to avoid sonar and rise up when the destination is reached, allowing boats to unload its cargo.

Only relatively small weapons could be moved by the Ghadir, such as ATGMs, MANPADS, RPGs, mortars and small rockets. This would be better than nothing as Iran's current smuggling capacity is all but zero due to Sudan's new found alliance with Israel. 

Could Gaza Beat Israel in a War?

The Gaza Strip is a small section of coastal land located in Southern Israel. It is controlled by Hamas, with its military wing, the al-Qassam brigades. The al-Qassam brigades number an estimated 25,000 fighters. Their primary weapon against Israel are unguided domestically made rockets. In 2014 Israel and Hamas went to war, the outcome of which was basically a stalemate. 2014 was the most recent confrontation that proved the IDF is tough to beat.

What would a Hamas victory look like? Hamas and the al-Qassam brigades could certainly not defeat Israel in a conventional sense of conquering territory. A victory for the Gaza strip would look more like destroyed IDF vehicles and key targets being hit by unguided rockets. Both of these factors are difficult as the IDF protects its tanks and armored vehicles with the Trophy active protection system. Israel also defends its territory against rockets with the Iron Dome system that shoots down incoming rockets. The Iron Dome is not perfect, and many rockets still can get through at present.

The Trophy APS on a Merkava tank.

The Iron Dome system.

The al-Qassam brigades would have to find ways to get around these systems as well as avoid the powerful Israeli Air Force. There are several ways to get around Trophy, but not as many ways around the Iron Dome. 

The IDF has hundreds of warplanes, including the F-15, pictured below.

There are several ways around the Trophy APS. These include firing multiple RPGs at the target at once, putting a ballistic shield on the RPG and coating the RPG in radar absorbing paint. The IDF has placed the Trophy APS on all of its major armored vehicles. Its effectiveness was demonstrated in 2014, when no tank was destroyed by an RPG or ATGM fired by the Qassam brigades.

A Namer APC with the Trophy APS.

First, multiple RPGs could be fired at the same tank or APC. This would saturate the APS and only one RPG would be hit with the APS projectiles. Israel has begun to address this possibility with the "trench coat" upgrade, however.

Multiple RPG-29s could be fired on one target.

Another option is to coat RPGs in radar absorbing material. Paint containing ceramic microspheres and Ferrite are known to absorb radar waves, making the projectile invisible to the APS radar. It is unclear if Gaza would be able to produce such a paint. Another option is foam coated in Ferrite or Graphene and wrapped around RPGs. There are even commercially available radar absorbing foams.

The domestically made Yasin RPG or RPG-7 rockets could be coated with Radar absorbing paint or foam.

CFOAM is a commercially available radar absorbing material. How Gaza could obtain it is unknown and not likely. It may be able to produce its own version, however.

The third option is to attach a ballistic shield to RPG rounds. These shields would deflect APS projectiles and allow the rocket to hit the target. This would make them less accurate, but it would give them a chance.

RPGs could be covered with a ballistic shield.

Similarly, RPGs could be covered in armor to stop projectiles from detonating them.

To combat the "trench coat" upgrade of the Trophy APS, multiple RPGs could be fired filled with Chaff, a radar reflective material such as aluminum foil strips. This would blanket the air and blind the APS radar, allowing the main rocket to hit the tank.

A Domestically made Yasin RPG, now obsolete, could be repurposed by being filled with chaff.

What a chaff "blanket" would look like.

The Malyutka ATGM is the only external ATGM the Qassam brigades operates. Being that it is not tube launched, this ATGM could be coated in radar absorbing paint. This would allow it to be invisible to APS radar and hit the target. It could be armored, but this would likely make it difficult to control.

High and low velocity pneumatic "potato gun" cannons could be used to launch modified RPGs and even steel darts. RPGs could be constructed of carbon fiber, a material that absorbs most of the radar waves that hits it, making it hard for the APS radar to detect. It would be fired pneumatically to avoid using metal parts in the rocket motor. Two could even be fired from the same gun in rapid succession to further trick the APS.

A high velocity pneumatic cannon could be made to fire steel armor piercing darts at tanks. At 500-900 meters per second these could do serious damage, especially if it hit the hull. The steel dart would be partially encased in rubber to propel it out of the pneumatic cannon, this rubber would be shed once it hits the tank and penetrates. The hull of the Merkava is relatively thin in areas.

A qassam rocket could be mounted horizontally and fired at a tank. Its metal skin is likely thick enough to withstand APS projectiles, and its large warhead would cause sever damage to the tank. The rocket could be up-armored to make sure the APS projectiles don't destroy it prematurely.

Another unconventional anti-tank method is the tank trap. Large pits dug out and covered with plywood and dirt that would break if a tank rolled over it. This would be very effective in Gaza as open areas to advance in for tanks are quite limited.

Tank traps could be built on streets out of concrete in the outskirts of Gaza to potentially cause tanks to crash into them in an advance while under fire. This happened in Ukraine in 2014.

What the outcome of these methods could look like. Photo from the 2006 Lebanon war, before the Trophy APS entered service.

Rockets are the Qassam brigade's most iconic weapon. The Iron Dome system now shoots down a large percentage of them. There are a few ways around this. Many rockets could be fired at the same location, rockets could be coated with radar absorbing material, or rockets could be filled with no explosives and act as kinetic impactors and be unstoppable.

Qassam rockets.

The first option is to target specific areas with many rockets. This is difficult, as Gaza's rockets are unguided and inaccurate. Rockets could be built with specific ranges for preset targets like airbases and the Dimona nuclear reactor. If dozens or even hundreds of rockets were launched at once it would be difficult for Iron Dome to hit the majority of them.

Rockets being fired from the Gaza Strip.

The Iron Dome firing an interceptor rocket.

The second option is to make "kinetic impactor" rockets with no explosives in them. The Iron Dome works by detonating the rocket in the air, if there's no explosive in the rocket, there is nothing to detonate. The rocket would then crash down on its target. This would have a major psychological impact, as rockets could no longer be stopped.

 If rockets were able to hit airbases and the Dimona nuclear reactor, Israel would be in a bad position. The Dimona reactor itself is heavily armored, but surrounding structures and water cooling pipes could be destroyed by a rocket barrage, possibly causing a nuclear meltdown if rockets were to hit in just the right places.

The Dimona reactor itself is heavily armored, but surrounding structures like the cooling tower seen here are not.

Large rockets could have no explosives and serve as kinetic impactors.

Turning rockets into unguided "cruise missiles" would be a way around the Iron Dome. Placing small wings and launching rockets at a low, almost horizontal angle would allow the rockets to fly under the radar and interception altitude of the Iron Dome system. This would probably decrease their range, however.

Another unconventional method is to attach road flares to rockets, so if they are shot down or hit their target they cause fires to break out. These rockets would not carry explosives, just road flares attached to the outer structure of the rocket. The flares would be ignited before the rocket launches. 

A 30 minute road flare. Such a flare could be attached to a rocket.

To combat the Israeli Air Force, unguided rockets could be made to explode at certain altitudes in the air over the Gaza Strip during a war. In large numbers, these small "flak rockets" could down IDF aircraft.

Flak exploding around a US Air Force B-17 bomber during WWII.

A B-17 destroyed by flak.

A Israeli F-16 that crashed after being hit by a Syrian S-200 missile.

Small rockets could be turned skyward and made to explode in the air.

In conclusion, Gaza could not beat Israel in a conventional sense. It could cause so much loss in IDF equipment that Israel just gives up. This would look very much like a defeat to the Gaza Strip and the Israeli public.

Improving Iran's Military and Deterrence

Iran is subject to crippling sanctions and the threat of an eventual strike or even invasion by the US or Israel. Iran needs to find ways to improve its deterrence, and if necessary prepare its forces for a ground invasion by a stronger power like the US. There are many steps Iran could take to improve its military and deterrence capabilities.

1. Cruise Missiles

Iran should focus on short and long range cruise missiles instead of ballistic missiles. The reason for this is simple. Ballistic missiles can be intercepted fairly easily while cruise missiles are almost impossible to shoot down. Iran needs to be prepared to strike US bases in the Gulf states if it becomes apparent they are preparing an invasion into Iran. The US has set up Patriot and THAAD surface to air missile systems to intercept ballistic missiles, but these systems are useless against low flying cruise missiles. Israel also uses the Arrow-2 ballistic missile interceptor, so if a retaliation strike on Israel took place it would need to use cruise missiles.

The Hoveyzeh cruise missile, with a 1,300 kilometer range and accuracy of one meter.

2. Tank Upgrades

All of Iran's T-72 tanks should be upgraded to the new Karrar standard. This tank has better armor protection, but more importantly a better fire control system with a thermal sight. This would be vital in fighting M1 Abrams tanks if the US decided to invade.

3. ATGMs

Iran should build up its already massive ATGM arsenal. Iran could focus on making a stealth ATGM system as it reverse engineers several ATGM types at present. Coating these missiles with radar absorbing paint would make them invisible to a tank's active protection system radar. The US would likely use an APS on its Abrams tanks if it invaded Iran. These new ATGMs could also be distributed to Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.

Iran's reverse engineered Kornet ATGM, the Dehlavieh.

4. Midget Submarines

Iran operates a large number of midget submarines known as the Ghadir. The Ghadir could be a vital deterrent as they could shut down the strait of Hormuz if a war broke out. They could simply wait in ambush and torpedo passing oil tankers. Iran should focus away from expensive warships and instead focus on building these midget submarines.

5. Submarine Shelters

Iran could build bomb resistant shelters for its midget submarine fleet in the Strait of Hormuz. This would allow subs to get into the ocean even if Iran was caught off guard. The Germans built submarine shelters for their U-boats during WWII.

6. Professional Soldiers

Iran should employ more professional soldiers instead of conscripts. The training and more importantly morale would be vastly improved over a largely conscripted army.

7. Guerilla Army

Iran could allocate some of its army into a "guerilla force" prepared to fight an asymmetric war against a stronger power. Iran's mountains are a guerilla fighter's paradise.

8. Air Defenses

Iran should focus on building large quantities of its indigenous air defense systems like the 3rd Khordad and Bavar 373. Hundreds of 3rds Khordad and dozens of Bavar 373 systems should be built to cover Iran's massive airspace. These systems have been combat proven and proven in testing.

3rd Khordads under construction.

Long range Bavar 373.

9. Inexpensive Warships

Iran has recently converted cargo ships into "warships" by equipping them with SAM and anti ship missile systems. This is a good idea, as it is vastly cheaper than building a conventional warship. Many of these ships could be bought and refitted with weapon systems for the cost of one true warship. Iran should produce many of these.

A cargo ship fitted with suicide drones, 3rd Khordad SAM and anti-ship missile systems.

10. Fortified Islands

Iran could fortify the islands in the Strait of Hormuz. This would allow Iran to block the Strait should a war break out, shutting down 20% of the world's oil flow.

Fortifications on the island of Iwo Jima, WWII.

11. Stealth RPGs

Iran could develop RPGs coated in radar absorbing material. This would defeat a tank's active protection system radar and allow the rocket to hit the tank. Radar absorbing paint or foam could be used. This could also be distributed to Iran's proxies against Israel to defeat the IDF Trophy APS.

12. Drones

Iran should increase its drone production. Especially stealth drones like the Saegheh-2 UCAV. These could be distributed to its proxies or be used against a stronger invading power. These would have the ability to strike vital targets without being detected.

13. Nuclear Dirty Bombs

A small number of ballistic or cruise missiles could be filled with Uranium-235 and publicly displayed as a deterrent to Western powers. Iran has a large stockpile of Uranium that it could take a few hundred pounds from for this use.

14. Nuclear Weapons

Iran could build nuclear weapons. With recent events, Iran is ramping up its nuclear program. It is quite possible Iran could develop the ultimate deterrent within a few years. The nuclear bomb could be delivered by cruise missile to prevent it from being shot down. The Middle East would then be at Iran's mercy.

15. ICBM

If a nuclear weapon was developed Iran could build an ICBM likely with North Korean help. This would have the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon almost anywhere in the world. Iran would then be untouchable.