The Golan Heights was seized and occupied by Israel in 1967 after the 6 Day War. A Syrian and Egyptian force failed in its effort to defeat Israel and as a result Israel took land from both nations. Egypt's territory was later returned after a peace agreement. The Syrian Golan remained in Israeli hands as Syria would not waiver.
The Golan Heights.
The Golan Heights remains in Israel's hands today. Israel has built settlements and many military installations on the Golan. Many analysts say it is far too late, and the Syrian military far too incompetent, to retake the Golan Heights. However with the right tactics it could be retaken, the question is could it be held.
If Syria was to retake the Golan in a military offensive, the Israeli response would be massive. Hundreds of aircraft would likely launch thousands of airstrikes on Syrian targets. The question is, how could Syria survive such an onslaught?
How would Syria begin an offensive to retake the Golan? The first step would be to destroy Israel's SIGNIT facilities on the Golan, The Mount Hermon observation post is Israel's main SIGNIT facility on the Golan. With these installations, Israel can listen in and even track Syrian Army movements on the ground.
Mount Hermon SIGNIT facility viewed from Syria.
Syria could destroy such facilities with concentrated artillery strikes. Artillery set in underground bases could avoid airstrikes from Israel in retaliation. The muzzlebreaks of such artillery would have to remain above ground, however.
A crude illustration of an underground D-30 122mm bunker.
A Syrian M-46 130mm.
This would have to happen just before a ground offensive is launched by the Syrian Army. The element of surprise is key to winning any battle against Israel. Two or more army groups could launch an assault on the Golan, some as a diversion. The SAA could flank through Lebanon in a move that would be difficult, but not anticipated by Israel. Israel would launch airstrikes on Syria and Syrian Army targets throughout this operation, so it would be important to conceal advancing troops and armor from the air. Many tanks would be destroyed by IDF jets, but some may make it into the Golan.
A thermal a visual camouflage canopy on a T-55. This would have to be used on all advancing tanks.
Tunnels could be dug into the Golan by Syria. This concept has been proven by Hamas in the Gaza strip. This would be difficult to accomplish without Israel noticing, however. It would also be a huge logistical nightmare to accomplish as the distance involved is much greater than in the Gaza Strip. If these tunnel were dug. shock troops could enter the Golan with ATGMs and mortars and cause chaos in the IDF ranks. This would clear a path for the army groups previously mentioned to enter the Golan.
Tunnels used by Hamas to infiltrate into Israel.
If the Golan heights were to be captured by Syria after such an operation, it would then be a challenge to hold it. Israel would launch a massive air campaign on Syrian Military targets both in the Golan and likely all over Syria in response. Syrian Air Defenses would engage, but would quickly be overwhelmed by the scale of the Israeli response. Syria would have to hide its tanks and hardware before such an operation, because their air defenses simply could not cope with Israel's response.
IDF F-35 stealth fighter. The F-35 is limited by its internal weapons bay, so it often carries an external payload. This renders it less stealthy and possible to shoot down, though still extremely unlikely.
Syrian forces would have to take on a Guerilla warfare role after the Golan was captured. They could take refuge in settlements and cities on the Golan and wait with ATGMs, MANPADS and RPGs. After Israel's primary air campaign, the IDF would launch a massive counter attack, likely with hundreds of Merkava Tanks. Merkava tanks have the Trophy Active Protection System, so they are difficult to destroy with ATGMs. One tactic would be to hit troops and support vehicles around the Merkavas to slow the advance and cause further chaos in the IDF ranks.
The Golan Heights. Towns and settlements could be fortified by an SAA guerilla force if retaken.
The Merkava 4 with Trophy APS, making an ATGM or RPG hit on the tank unlikely.
If Syrian Tanks survived Israel's air campaign in the Golan, they could take up ambush positions in cities and settlements on the Golan and wait under cover from air attacks. Once a Merkava approaches, a Syrian tank could pop out and fire an APFSDS (armor piercing fin stabilized discarding sabot) shell and potentially destroy the Merkava. The T-72 has the most effective APFSDS shell, but T-55s and T-62s also employ them.
A Syrian T-72AV.
APFSDS shells for the Syrian T-62.
T-72 APFSDS shells.
If Syria was unsuccessful at holding the Golan Heights and Israel retook it, that would likely not be the end. Israel would likely push further into Syria and capture territory in Daraa and Quenitra provinces. It is also possible that Israel would seek to defeat the Syrian Government once and for all and push to Damascus. Syria would have to anticipate this potential outcome and take steps to combat it.
ATGMs, underground artillery and hidden tanks could be placed along the roads to Damascus and in Damascus itself. ATGMs could target troops and light armored vehicles such as the M-113 and 4X4 vehicles as well as troop gatherings. Artillery hidden in underground bunkers could be presighted to hit roads as the IDF approached Damascus. Tanks could be hidden in brush and inside houses and other structures waiting to ambush advancing IDF forces with APFSDS shells. Syria would have to weather a continued air campaign striking targets as the IDF ground forces advanced.
IEDs and tank traps could be placed and built along roads leading to Damascus and around Damascus itself. At this point in the battle it would be a war of attrition against Israel, hoping to stop the IDF from reaching and occupying Damascus.
Syrian Kornet ATGM.
Tandem RPG-7.
Large Surface to Air missile systems would be saturated quickly and likely destroyed by the Israeli Air Force. The SAA would need to distribute large numbers of MANPADS to its troops both during the offensive and especially for if the offensive failed.
MANPADS captured by rebels in Syria.
Syrian Government officials would likely need to move North away from Damascus, anticipating an Israeli counteroffensive.
Map of Southern Syria. Damascus is 60 Kilometers from the Golan Heights and an Israeli counteroffensive that would encompass Damascus should be anticipated.
Tanks could be stationed primarily in towns along the way to Damascus. They could be hidden in houses and other buildings waiting in ambush for IDF targets. Khan Arnabah, Sa'sa and Al Kiswah are examples of where tanks could be hidden. ATGMs could primarily be stationed in the countryside while RPGs are stationed in the towns and cities preparing for an urban Guerilla war. Artillery could be placed in underground bunkers presighted for the roads. A large tank force could be hidden in Damascus itself as well, as it is quite possible that the IDF would reach Damascus.
A T-55 hidden under a structure by ISIS during the battle of Mosul. It was not spotted by air, but abandoned and found by the Iraqi Army. This proves the concept.
If Israel reached Damascus a massive Guerilla war could break out. Just as the Syrian Army struggled for years to dislodge militants in the Damascus suburbs, Israel may have a similar problem if the SAA is prepared to take on the role of the guerilla force. The SAA could also have tanks on its side in Damascus, forming a kind of mechanized guerilla force.
A map of Damascus.
If Damascus is reached and the situation becomes unwinnable for the SAA, the Syrian Government may be forced to sue for peace. It is unclear if Israel would stop at Damascus, or continue North and East to take more land. It is incredibly unlikely that Israel would return any captured territory without a peace treaty. This has been proven with Israel's refusal to return the Golan Heights in the first place.
However, if Israel left the rest of Syria under Government control it would have a disadvantage in the future. Israel would be occupying unfriendly territory and the terrain is mostly flat, unlike the Golan Heights. This means they would no longer have the high ground in a future war launched by the SAA-or what remined of it-to retake captured Syrian territory. An insurgency would also virtually be guaranteed in Daraa, Quenitra and even Damascus if Israel decided to hold this territory. This alone might convince the IDF to pull back to the Golan Heights even after an SAA defeat.
It is unlikely but possible that the SAA could retake the Golan Heights. Extensive training and high morale would be needed for such an offensive operation. Even if the Golan was recaptured by Syria, the IDF is simply much stronger and would likely retake it very quickly. With the present condition of the SAA it is not likely an offensive of this magnitude could be launched against Israel.
If Syria waits another decade of so and builds up its forces it is possible. Weapons they should obtain to bolster their armed forces should include more modern tanks such as the T-72B3 or T-90MS. As many air defenses such as the S-300, Buk-M2 and Tor-M1/2 should be purchased from Russia as possible. More modern ATGMs like the Kornet-EM and RPGs like the RPG-30 designed to deal with active protection systems should also be considered highly important in defeating an advancing IDF force.
The RPG-30 fires two rockets to trick a tank's active protection system.
In conclusion, this thought experiment will likely never happen and Israel and Syria will be constantly trading blows and arguing over the fate of the Golan. The UN refuses to recognize Israel's occupation of the Golan, with only the US claiming it as part of Israel. The international community is on Syria's side when it come to the Golan Heights, but expect that support to disappear should Syria launch an offensive to retake it.
