American Hegemony is Ending

 The era of American dominance in the world is rapidly coming to a close. It has been apparent that this decline had been taking place for several years, but the events of February 28th cemented America's fate. The war on Iran went about as horribly as could have been imagined for the once powerful nation. 

Iran's response, and continuing response as this is being written, was vastly underestimated in its global implications. Iran was able to circumvent air defenses in Israel and the Gulf Arab nations. Iran has been launching barrages of missiles in small waves at US bases throughout the region at will. The USA's interceptor missiles are so critically low that the US military pulled all of its THAAD batteries from South Korea to be deployed to the middle east. South Korea was infuriated by this decision. Both the South Korean media and leadership have expressed their dismay. 

To the Gulf Arab nations, it is now clear that US bases are not an advantage to them, but clearly a detriment. It is now blatantly obvious that the only middle eastern nation that the Americans ever truly cared to defend was the white settler colony of Israel. The US-Gulf relationship may never recover from these revelations. 

Meanwhile, the American Pacific sphere of operations is diverting ships and troops to the middle east as the Iran war continues to go South. China must now recognize the opportunity that they have been given. It was reported on March 15 that Chinese aircraft have been increasing their activity around Taiwan. If China was truly going to invade the island, now is surely the best time. The Chinese now clearly see that they have an opening that they may not have again for decades to come. 

Europe has never been more irrelevant. The USA eased sanctions on Russian oil to alleviate the inevitable price increase of the Iran war. All the while Trump threatens tariffs on European countries and Denmark is threatened to surrender Greenland to the USA. The Europeans are now largely fighting the Ukraine war of attrition alone, and it is unclear how long they can sustain this fight. 

The USA has burned every bridge in the world in recent years. China is now seen as the rational actor in geopolitics, and everyone sees the writing on the wall. China will overtake the USA as the dominant force in the world regardless of what either nations do from now on. The situation can only get worse for the USA depending on its actions from this point forward. What few allies the USA has left are rapidly being alienated by the events of the Iran war. China does not necessarily need the USA, but the USA needs China for its fragile economy to remain afloat.

The loss of Taiwan would mean the end of the USA's supply of semiconductors and logic chips. The last bastion of the American economy was the artificial intelligence industry. This industry would be instantly decimated by a Chinese move on Taiwan. Geopolitically, it would also end the USA's sphere of influence in the South China sea and in Southeast Asia at large. The Chinese realize all of this and there is a none-zero chance that this is all being taken into consideration by the high command. 

The world balance is changing and the US leadership should have realized this before galavanting in wars of aggression across the global South. Instead, its leaders speak with a bombastic fury that is hard to take seriously. The leadership in China and in other nations around the world are looking at the USA like the train wreck that it is. America's decline was inevitable, but no one expected it to crash and burn so spectacularly. 

How a USA Invasion of Iran Would Play Out

 An invasion of Iran with US ground forces is "on the table" according to the Trump administration. This would be a giant undertaking, requiring many more months of moving equipment and troops to the middle east. At this time there is little evidence that this is happening. The USA seems to still believe it can win a war through air power alone, though it seems obvious from this war and from the historical record that this is impossible. 

There is no viable way to invade Iran. Analysts, including myself, have racked their brains for a potential invasion route that wouldn't result in complete catastrophe for a US invasion force. The truth is that such a route does not exist. While the road the Baghdad in 2003 was over flat terrain with little urban centers between the sea and Baghdad itself, the same can not be said for Iran. Any route the USA might choose to reach Tehran would go through hundreds of miles of mountain terrain, over bridges and through large cities. 

Large cities in Iran would be a disaster for the USA to try to take or hold militarily. Large urban centers such as Tabriz, Isfahan, Mashhad and Qom all have extensive underground metro tunnels and untold miles of Iranian military infrastructure in between them. Large cities, combined with these tunnels, pose a huge urban guerilla combat paradise. Tehran itself has miles of metro tunnels and highway tunnels. It is quite likely that the IRGC and Basij forces would use these as staging grounds for urban combat. 

Iran learned a lot from the USA's invasion of Iraq in 2003. The IRGC and company would not be confronting the US military in a conventional war using tanks and helicopters. Rather, they will use guerilla tactics and smaller mobile weapon system such as ATGMs, mortars and RPGs. The Basij forces have hundreds of thousands of soldiers that can be called up to confront any US invasion. Even if the IRGC is conventionally defeated, the remnants will continue fighting a guerilla war for years longer. 

Even if the USA could get over the mountains and through the urban centers, the fight for Tehran would be particularly fierce and difficult. As previously stated, the metro tunnels will provide a staging ground for urban combat operations against the invading force. The Shur river running south of Tehran has a number of bridges that would undoubtedly be detonated, making reaching the city itself difficult to begin with. 

The port cities of Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Bandar-E Mashahehr and Chabahar are likely landing areas for US forces. A crossing from Iraq is possible, but unlikely. All of these ports, should they become a bridgehead for US forces, will be subject to intense missile and drone attacks from across the country. Supply issues stemming from these attack and the extreme distance and rough terrain between the ports and the advancing troops would cause an impossible logistical situation and supplies would run low as the US forces advanced through the country. 

The USA may continue to attempt victory through a bombing campaign alone, which the historical record shows is not going to result in Iran's defeat. Bombing campaigns on North Vietnam, for example, failed to achieve a military defeat of the NVA and in fact strengthened their resolve to fight. Iran is many times larger than North Vietnam ever was. Trump and his cabinet are not well versed in military tactics, geography or history. For this Reason, they may choose a ground invasion even against the advice of US generals. This ground campaign would inevitably lead to defeat for US forces. 

The Escalation Ladder

 As the USA and Israel escalate their war on Iran, Iran escalates in return. The Iranians have stated that their attacks will be an eye for an eye. I will attempt to predict the tiers of the escalation ladder.

Tier 1: Intensifying targeting of US bases. 

Tier 2: Targeting of Gulf oil Infrastructure.

Tier 3: Targeting of Gulf kings and leadership. 

Tier 4: Targeting the Dimona nuclear reactor in Israel. 

Tier one involved sustained missile and drone attacks targeting several key bases in which the US military is utilizing for the bombing campaign on Iran. Well placed missiles and drones could destroy many of the aircraft and take out many of the troops stationed at each base. The Iranians have been doing this and will continue. On March 13, for example, 5 refueling aircraft were damaged on the ground by an Iranian munition. 

Tier two results from the destruction or US occupation of Iran's Kharg island where most oil is processed. If Iran's oil infrastructure is destroyed or captured, there will be no limiting factor for Iran to destroy the oil refineries, depots and oil rigs of the Gulf. This would send the world into an economic disaster. The Red sea would likely also be closed by the Houthis in Yemen. 

Tier two would result from the continued assassination of Iranian leaders and officers. Iran might feel it is justified to target heads of state throughout the Gulf nations. 

Tier four results from the destruction of Iran's uranium stockpile or the use of a nuclear weapon on Iranian soil. The Dimona reactor in the Negev of "Israel" would undoubtedly be hit at this time. This could result in a Chernobyl-level nuclear meltdown of the facility. 

The USA is making increasingly confused statements. It seems likely that they will attempt to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, or possibly occupy Kharg island. 5,000 Marines are reportedly heading to the middle east, apparently for this task. This is obviously not enough soldiers for anyone familiar with military tactics to do much of anything. A mere 5,000 soldiers might be able to occupy Kharg island, but would be forced out by short and medium range ballistic missiles as well as drones. Kharg island would become an inferno. Taking any coastal land along the Strait of Hormuz would go even less smoothly. Conventional artillery and ATGMs would harass any invaders along with the previously mentioned heavy munitions. 

The ultimate escalation that is realistic at this time would be a full US invasion of Iran. Given the large size of the country and its mountain covered terrain, there is no foreseeable way this would not result in huge US casualties. Tehran is far from the coast and IRGC bases are located throughout the country. Iran would have to be captured mile by mile. If this comes to fruition, Iran may inflict the first ever military defeat on the USA in its invasion phase of a war. 

How Iran Can Win the War

Iran must keep fighting as this is an existential fight for survival. 

Israel is the most irrational of the three actors involved in this conflict. The Israelis have already referred to the Iranians as "Amalek" as they did before to the people of Gaza. We know where this leads. Already the USA and Israel are engaged in a terror bombing campaign on civilian targets in Tehran in particular. This campaign of terror will continue and intensify as Iran continues to fight. 

Iran is now in a comfortable position, which was unthinkable on February 28th. Iran has many more cards to play as the Israeli-American axis has vastly underestimated their capabilities and resolve. Yesterday, a KC-135 was shot down over Iraq. Today, there are reports from the Wall Street Journal that five more KC-135 aircraft were damaged on the ground in Saudi Arabia. This is one of the only ways the war might reasonably end at this time. If Iran can take out the KC-135 fleet, the F-15s and F-35s will be limited in their strike range inside Iran. Iran seems to have recognized this. The KC-135s could continue to be targeted on the ground by drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. This will become easier as the war goes on, as interceptors run out. 

If the US-Israeli axis truly runs out of  interceptors, this might also force a true negotiation for peace. Israel and US assets could be struck at will with almost no way to prevent it. In my opinion, if Israel truly runs out of interceptors, they may consider using nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons on Iranian cities likely wouldn't even stop the missile barrages, however. The IRGC stationed in the countryside and mountains would continue to fire what they had until they ran out. Israel would also forever be a pariah for the use of nuclear weapons. Being the the Israelis are not a rational group of people, it is quite possible they would nevertheless use nuclear weapons. Iran would then have no restraint left. The IRGC would target oil infrastructure throughout the Gulf, desalination plants in the Gulf and in Israel and even the Dimona nuclear reactor. 

Iran may have to force the USA and Israel to give up. Their current strategy seems to be working toward this goal. Small missile barrages and targeting the KC-135s is the winning strategy. Today (March 13) Iran used the Karrar drone and Soumar cruise missile for the first time. It is clear they are not running out of ordinance any time soon. Iran must cause enough pain to the coalition for them to consider quitting the war, but not cause so much as to force Israel into a suicidal position. The targeting of KC-135s is the best method to tow this line. 

Iran's Ballistic Missiles

 The war of Aggression imposed on Iran in February-March of 2026 by the USA and Israel saw an intense response from the Islamic republic. In the first days of the war, Iran responded with huge numbers of ballistic missiles. As the war goes on, Iran launches fewer missiles in its missile waves. This is due to the fact that the American-Israeli axis are running out of missile interceptors, and Iran is now anticipating a protracted war. As I type this, ballistic missile wave 41 was just launched from Iran at Israeli targets.

Much of the missile tonnage in the 2026 war is so far composed of the older Shahab series of ballistic missiles, which were first developed in the early 2000s. More advanced versions of these missiles, such as the Ghadr and Emad are also being used extensively. The Shahab missiles are liquid fueled, while the upgraded versions are now solid fuel. Solid fuel allows for faster deployment and longer storage time. 

The Shahab family of missiles.

More advanced missiles are now being used in small numbers. These include the Khorramshahr-4, Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan. The Khorramshahr-4 uses hypergolic liquid fuel that can be stored for longer periods than conventional liquid fuel. This missile can be equipped with a two ton warhead or cluster munitions. For the past several days as of the publication date, Khorramshahr-4 cluster munitions have rained down on Tel Aviv daily. These missiles all have a range of approximately 1,500-2,000 kilometers.

The Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan are newer missiles designed to bypass missile defenses. The Fattah-1 especially is well equipped to do this, as it is hypersonic and maneuverable upon re-entry. The Fattah-1 warhead stage is also equipped with a rocket engine to accelerate it to its target even further. The Kheibar Shekan missile is likewise maneuverable on re-entry thanks to fins attached to the final warhead stage. The Fattah-2 is rumored to be hypersonic, and clearly is designed as a hypersonic glide vehicle. However, its current operational status is unclear. 

Fattah-1 final stage.

Smaller missiles with shorter ranges have yet to be used extensively in this war. Models such as the Fetah-110, with a range of only several hundred kilometers, are no doubt being held back to hit any invading American ground force or ships approaching the nation. It seems that Iran has a stockpile of missile to continue their current barrage rate for weeks, if not months, to come. 

Iran is Going to Win

 The joint USA-Israeli war of aggression on Iran began with a series of tactical blunders and faulty logic. The USA-Israeli axis underestimated the Iranian response and their ability to endure a sustained air campaign. The assassination of Khamenei and a tomahawk missile strike on a school promptly rallied Iranians around their government. 

Trump and Netanyahu called for the Iranian people to “rise up” as they began striking Iranian targets. No such uprising is forthcoming ten days into the campaign. It is clear that these strikes have had the opposite effect. Even those who disliked the leaders have sided with the Iranian government against the attacking foreign force. Anyone who was familiar with history could have seen this coming.

 Iran responded instead with a sustained missile and drone campaign on gulf Arab states and Israel. The ability for theses drones and ballistic missiles to bypass air defenses must have been a shock to the US-Israeli axis. Military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, for example, have been all but leveled. Israel now faces multiple waves of ballistic missile strikes per day, including cluster warheads.

 It is unclear what the axis will do next. It is clear that they are unable to stop Iran from hitting them. The only options would be to admit defeat, which seems unlikely. The next option would be a ground invasion by US troops. This seems to be more likely by the day. However, a ground invasion would not go well for the USA. This is not Iraq in 2003.

 Iran, unlike Iraq, is armed with a plethora of ATGMs and FPV drones for asymmetrical warfare against any landing force. While Iraq had some Kornet ATGMs in 2003, few soldiers were trained to use them. Iran produces their own copy of the Kornet anti-tank missile, some with dual launchers to bypass active protection systems. Also in the Iranian ATGM arsenal are copies of TOWs (Toophan series), Spike copies (Almas series) and a number of others types. 

 FPV drones have shown their effectiveness in Ukraine, but what are more significant in this phase of the war are the one-way drones. These suicide drones have been hammering targets throughout the middle east since the war began. Untold thousands remain unfired. Iran’s most enigmatic drone is the Shahed-136. This drone has been copied by Russia, China and now even the USA. To think that just several years ago, USA propaganda had it that Iranian drones could barely fly. A number of other suicide drones are also being used in this war. These include the Arash-2, Hadid-110 and Shahed- 107. 

 The US-Israeli axis has struck much of the Iranian air force and Navy, but this has made little impact. Now, as targets become difficult to locate, the axis turns to civilian infrastructure and a terror bombing campaign over Tehran. This will only serve to push the Iranian people closer to their government and ensures that an internal uprising is not going to happen. 

 A US invasion would fail miserably. Iran is four times bigger than Afghanistan and just as covered in mountains. It would take half a million troops or more to occupy the country. Tehran is not close to the coast and a significant distance from the Iraqi border as well. Even if the US forces made it to Tehran, the IRGC and Basij forces would melt into the mountains and become an unstoppable guerilla force.

 The IRGC is already a largely decentralized force, a transition to underground fighting would not be difficult. Israel is a rouge actor that may not accept defeat and drag the USA down with it. The USA may be forced into a ground invasion that they will lose. Barring this, Israel could use nuclear weapons. It is highly likely that the IRGC and the Iranians more generally will not be defeated in any case. 

Once the war is over, Iran will seek nuclear weapons as a security measure. Even before these weapons are produced, the interwar, pre-nuke period will see the US-Israeli axis afraid to strike Iran again. By this time they would know Iran would respond with a huge wave of missiles and drones. Just as the USA is now afraid to strike Afghanistan, as it doesn’t want to be drawn into another unwinnable conflict, a similar lesson will be learned in Iran. Iran will not only win, but I predict it will become more powerful geopolitically from this conflic